Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due hysteresis effects from Recession, persistent negative output gap following recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop new Markov-switching time series model of that accommodates two different types recessions: those permanently alter level and only temporary effects. also account structural change growth. Estimates our suggest generated large, rather than any substantial effects, economy eventually recovering lower path appears be reduction productivity began prior onset Recession.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Review of Economics and Statistics
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0034-6535', '1530-9142']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00957